Tag: value-based care

QUOTES

“The first baby boomer turns 80 this year in 2026. We’re at this fascinating point where we have huge demographic growth, but our response to that growth has been incredibly muted.” (Lisa)

“For some of the modern, competitive senior living communities, they’re full and vibrant and doing well. Recovery is probably an understatement.” (Lisa)

“I don’t want us to get lazy as an industry. Five years from now, when development starts up again, we still need to have what consumers want because it’s a different customer.” (Lisa)

“We say the boomers are different, but I’m still not sure we’re thinking differently enough. I feel like we’re having some of the same conversations we had 25 years ago.” (Lisa)

“Our world is incredibly difficult to navigate. We get stuck in our labels, and it becomes confusing for anyone trying to understand their options.” (Lisa)

“There is absolutely strong demand for what we have today. There are communities with wait lists years long. That’s real demand.” (Lisa)

“It’s not just about age and income. Every market has its own dynamics. Culture, policy, labor, affordability and consumer perceptions all shape demand in different ways.” (Lisa)

“There is ability to pay, and then there’s the perception of affordability. The psychology of affordability is very real.” (Lisa)

“Individuals who live in senior living communities live longer and have better health outcomes. But if we want healthcare partnerships, we need data to prove it.” (Lisa)

“I don’t want to just live longer. I want to live longer better. If you can demonstrate how you’ll help me stay healthier longer, that’s incredibly valuable.” (Lisa)

“As an industry, we’re very quick to send people to the emergency room. The data shows they’re much less likely to be admitted, which tells us there’s an opportunity to do better.” (Lisa)

“Embrace every opportunity you’re going to get because you’re in for a ride. Some of them will be tough, but stick with it. It’s been worth it.” (Lisa)

NOTES

Lisa McCracken is Head of Research and Analytics at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), where she helps senior living organizations better understand the industry through market research, data analysis and strategic insights. She is widely recognized as one of the industry’s leading voices on demographics, occupancy, development and consumer trends.

The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) is a nonprofit organization that provides research, data and thought leadership to help senior housing and care providers, investors and policymakers make more informed decisions. NIC is best known for its market analytics, occupancy tracking and research on the future of aging and senior living.

In addition to overseeing NIC’s research initiatives, McCracken frequently speaks at industry conferences and collaborates with universities and healthcare organizations on studies examining senior living, value-based care, consumer behavior and market performance. Her work helps translate complex industry data into practical insights for operators, marketers and investors.

Senior living occupancy has recovered from the pandemic and, in many markets, communities are operating at some of the highest occupancy levels they’ve ever experienced. At the same time, new development has slowed dramatically, creating a growing imbalance between supply and demand.

Demographics alone won’t guarantee future success. While the aging population is creating unprecedented demand, providers still need to evolve their products, marketing and customer experience to meet the expectations of a new generation of older adults.

Many consumers find senior living confusing because of the industry’s terminology and fragmented product offerings. Simplifying how communities communicate their options could make the decision-making process easier for prospective residents and their families.

Market success depends on much more than age and income. Cultural norms, local labor markets, development policies, affordability perceptions and consumer familiarity with senior living all influence demand in different regions.

Labor availability should be considered just as carefully as resident demographics when evaluating markets or planning new development. Communities need strategies for attracting and sustaining a strong workforce alongside growing resident demand.

Senior living providers have an opportunity to strengthen partnerships with healthcare organizations by demonstrating measurable outcomes. Research shows residents often experience longer lives and better health outcomes, but communities must support those claims with meaningful data.

Industry data revealed an interesting pattern: senior living residents visit emergency rooms more frequently than their peers but are admitted to the hospital less often. McCracken believes this points to an opportunity for providers to reduce unnecessary ER visits while improving the resident experience and lowering healthcare costs.

Looking back on her career, McCracken encouraged future industry leaders to embrace every opportunity, continue learning and remain open to unexpected career paths, noting that many of the most rewarding experiences come from challenges along the way.

Occupancy is rising, development remains constrained and the first wave of baby boomers is turning 80 — forces that are quietly redefining senior living’s trajectory. The real story isn’t just momentum, it’s what the data reveals about where the market is headed next. 

On Varsity’s weekly Roundtable, Lisa McCracken, Head of Research & Analytics at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), translated NIC’s latest research into clear signals for operators and marketers. Below are a few Fresh Perspectives from her discussion.

DEMAND FOR SENIOR LIVING OUTPACING SUPPLY GROWTH – Occupancy isn’t rising because we suddenly cracked the marketing code. It’s rising because inventory growth is at historic lows while the 80+ population accelerates. The supply-demand gap is doing heavy lifting.

90% IS THE NEW PSYCHOLOGICAL MILE MARKER

With national occupancy nearing 90 percent and record occupied units for 13–14 straight quarters, the industry is regaining confidence. Crossing that threshold signals strength — even if 91.7 percent remains the ultimate benchmark.

PENETRATION IS COMPLEX, NOT DEMOGRAPHIC

Age and income alone don’t determine market success. Cultural norms, policy, labor dynamics, ADLs and local economics all influence penetration. A one percent gain nationally would be massive — but it requires nuance, not shortcuts.

VALUE MUST BE PROVEN, NOT PRESUMED

Feeling impactful isn’t enough. Claims-based research shows residents live longer, have lower mortality and fewer hospitalizations than peers — data that strengthens positioning with payers and prospects alike.

ER VISITS TELL A STORY

Senior housing residents visit the emergency department more often, but are hospitalized less. That tension reveals both opportunity and operational blind spots — and points to the next frontier of improvement.

DEVELOPMENT IS A SLOW SWITCH

Even if capital loosens and construction starts rebound in 15–18 months, extended development timelines mean new supply won’t arrive quickly. Today’s drought could shape market dynamics for years.

DATA IS THE BRIDGE

From value-based care toolkits to expanded market coverage, NIC’s role isn’t just reporting numbers, it’s connecting silos, informing strategy and helping a small but essential sector prepare for a very big future.

Varsity’s Roundtable is a weekly virtual gathering of senior living marketers and leaders from across the nation. For updates about future weekly Roundtable gatherings, submit your name and email address here.