Data tells a much bigger story than occupancy rates alone. In this episode of Varsity’s Roundtable Talk, Derek sits down with Lisa McCracken, Head of Research and Analytics at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), to discuss the trends shaping the future of senior living.
Lisa explores why demand is outpacing supply, why demographics alone won’t guarantee success and how providers can use data to better understand their markets, demonstrate value and prepare for the next generation of older adults.
Check out the full episode here.
WHAT’S THE BIGGEST HEADLINE IN SENIOR LIVING RIGHT NOW?
We’ve been talking for most of my career about the arrival of the baby boomers, and we’re here today. The first baby boomer turns 80 this year in 2026. But yet we’re at this fascinating point where we have very little growth in our industry. We have huge demographic growth, but our response to that growth has been incredibly muted. I’m not sure many of us thought we’d be in this unique spot as the waves hit the shore of the baby boomers, and we’re a little ill-prepared in some respects.
WHAT DOES THE DATA TELL US ABOUT SENIOR LIVING’S POST-PANDEMIC RECOVERY?
From a data standpoint, one of the big things we look at is occupancy. As an industry, we passed the first quarter 2020 occupancy level. If you talk to many operators and providers today, they’re at some of the highest occupancy levels they’ve ever been at. For some of the modern, competitive senior living communities, they’re full and vibrant and doing well. Recovery is probably an understatement. We’re forecasting that we’re going to be hitting some record highs, so the next year or year and a half is going to be an interesting time.
WHAT’S REALLY DRIVING TODAY’S HIGH OCCUPANCY LEVELS?
There are some general demand elements for sure. Occupancy can certainly be driven by the fact that we don’t have a lot of new competition coming on the market. In the fourth quarter of 2025, a third of the primary markets actually had negative inventory growth. If your denominator is going down, even if you have the same number of people living there, your occupancy is going to go up. My concern is that I don’t want us to get lazy as an industry. We still need to work for it, and we’ve got to have what they want.
WHAT IS THE SENIOR LIVING INDUSTRY STILL GETTING WRONG ABOUT THIS MOMENT?
I think there is a little bit of, “the demographics will just take us where we need to be.” We talk about how the boomers are different, but I still don’t feel like we’re thinking differently enough. I feel like this is the same conversation I had 25 years ago. We say think outside of the box, but I’m just not sure if we’re thinking outside of the box enough. Even our labels are confusing. Life plan community, active adult, rental, entry fee. I think we get stuck in our labels, and our world is incredibly difficult to navigate.
HOW MUCH OF WHAT WE’RE SEEING IS REAL DEMAND VERSUS A LACK OF NEW INVENTORY?
I think it’s a combination of both. There is absolutely strong demand for a lot of what we have today. There are a lot of places that have very long wait lists. I talk to CEOs who say that for certain types of cottages or units, if you want something five years from now, get your name on there now. That’s demand for what you have. That is real deal. But the lack of new inventory is certainly part of it, and in certain markets there’s a scarcity issue going on for sure.
